Ultimate Fighting Championship
UFC Analytics & Fight Predictions
Every UFC card, fight by fight: AI fight breakdowns, market-derived win probabilities from the moneyline, style-matchup stats and a graded record of every read.
Season note. UFC runs year-round, with numbered pay-per-view cards roughly monthly and Fight Night events most weekends. Times on this page are UTC.
UFC Fight Analysis
A UFC fight has no home side and no season, so the breakdown is a style comparison: striking volume and accuracy against defence, takedown rate against takedown defence, finish rate, reach and stance, and how much time each fighter has spent in the cage recently. The moneyline and the round total are read against that comparison, and the breakdown discusses the likely paths to victory even though the graded read is the fight winner — method of victory is not a market Sportslyx prices.
What the breakdown reads
- fighter records and finish rates
- striking and grappling profiles
- reach and stance
- layoff and activity
- market odds and movement
Markets covered
- fight moneyline
- round total (over/under)
Each breakdown carries a data-quality tier — rich, partial or weak — based on how much of the list on the left the feed actually delivered for the fight. The tier is passed to the language model so the write-up hedges when the package is thin, and it is the first thing to check when a read looks off. Read more about how the AI analysis is produced.
AI UFC Predictions
The win probability on every UFC fight page is derived from the market, not from the language model. The prices are converted into implied probabilities, the bookmaker’s margin is removed so the set sums to 100%, and the result is shown as each side’s fair win chance.
A fight has two prices and no home side, so the pair is de-vigged symmetrically. Heavy favourites are common in MMA, and the page shows the fair chance rather than the price: −400 against +300 reads as roughly 76%, not as a certainty.
What the AI adds is the explanation, not the number. The breakdown reads the same data package the statistics section shows — form, availability, head-to-head, rest and the line, as far as the MMA feed provides them — and writes out why the market sits where it does and what it may be underweighting. A data-quality tier is attached — rich, partial or weak, depending on how much of that package the feed delivered — and the read is published before the fight starts. It is graded from the official result afterwards, and nothing is edited after the fact. AI breakdowns are pre-generated for the upcoming slate and cached; the win probability on the card is derived from the current market line. The write-up is not rewritten when the line moves.
A probability is a statistical estimate. A 65% favourite is expected to lose roughly one fight in three; a month in which it loses more than that is not evidence that the number was wrong, and a month in which it loses fewer is not evidence that it was right. The prediction-tracking table further down this page and the Pick Tracker exist so that the method can be judged on volume, not on memory.
The full board — every fight on the slate with its probability and status — lives on the UFC predictions page.
UFC Statistics
The UFC statistics section is organised around the categories the breakdown actually reads. Every number comes from the public scoreboard and box-score feeds and the per-fight data package built on fight day; where a category is not provided for a competition, the page says so rather than showing a blank.
Record and finish rate
Win-loss record and the share of wins that came by knockout or submission — the first two numbers in every fight breakdown.
Significant strikes landed and absorbed
Strikes landed and absorbed per minute, read together to judge whether a fighter wins exchanges or simply survives them.
Takedown rate and defense
Takedowns landed per fifteen minutes against takedown defence rate — the core of any striker-versus-grappler read.
Reach and stance
Reach difference and orthodox or southpaw stance, which shape range and are noted where the gap is large.
Recent activity and layoff
Time since the last fight and short-notice bookings, which replace the rest input used in team sports.
Weight class history
Previous divisions and recent weight-class moves, flagged because a change in class changes the sample the record was built on.
UFC Matchups
Rematches are the only head-to-head history in MMA, and they are read carefully because a fighter’s last meeting may be years old. Recent activity and layoff replace the rest input used in team sports: a long layoff or a short-notice booking is noted as a risk in every fight breakdown. Weight-class changes are flagged for the same reason.
Form, head-to-head and rest are inputs to the breakdown, not the verdict. The market line is the anchor, and the matchup context is what the analysis uses to explain agreement or disagreement with it — a read that contradicts the line has to say which of these inputs the market appears to be missing, and by how much.
Every fight page shows the matchup view in full: the participants’ recent results, the head-to-head record where one exists, the schedule context and the public line, drawn from the same data package the AI reads. Start from the UFC fights list or from today’s board below.
UFC Fighter Performance
There are no fighter profiles on Sportslyx: profiles are team-based, and the UFC has no teams. Every fighter number — record, finish rate, striking and takedown rates, activity and layoff — lives on the fight page, which is built from the public card as soon as it is announced and refreshed on fight day.
There is no standalone fighter profile on Sportslyx, and this page does not pretend otherwise: the performance view is the fight page, where each fighter’s numbers are shown against the opponent and against the market’s price for that fight. It is rebuilt from the public schedule feed as the fight is announced and again on the day, so it reflects the most recent fight on record rather than a snapshot from months earlier.
Two things it does not do. It does not project a fighter’s next result; that is the breakdown’s job, and it is graded. And it does not backfill history the feed never delivered: a fighter with a short record is shown with a short record. The UFC fights list is the way in, and the UFC statistics page explains every fighter number the fight page reads.
UFC Fighter Statistics
Fighter statistics are the whole analysis in MMA — there is no team to fall back on. The numbers here are the inputs to the fight breakdown and to the style comparison it draws; there are no prop reads in the UFC record, and player props are covered for MLB only.
Strikes per minute
Significant strikes landed per minute — the volume side of a striking profile.
Striking accuracy
Share of significant strikes that land, read against the opponent’s striking defence.
Takedowns per 15 minutes
Takedown attempts and completions normalised to fifteen minutes so short and long fights compare.
Submission attempts
Attempts per fifteen minutes — the number behind any grappling-finish discussion in the breakdown.
UFC Prediction Tracking
Published UFC reads settled in each of the last 3 calendar months (UTC). The UFC read is the moneyline favourite, graded on the official result. Cancelled bouts, no-contests and fights pulled from the card are voided and do not count in the published record.
| Month | Settled | W-L-P | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 15 | 9-6-0 | 60% | -12.4% |
| August 2026 | 42 | 25-17-0 | 60% | -19.3% |
| July 2026 | 0 | 0-0-0 | — | — |
Hit rate is wins divided by wins plus losses; pushes are excluded. ROI is measured at a flat stake per read, so one large result cannot dominate a month. 3 months is a small sample — read it as a window into the method, not as a forecast of the next month — and remember that past results do not predict future results.
Today’s UFC Fights
Every UFC fight on today’s board (UTC) in start-time order, with the public spread, total and moneyline where the feed provides them. UFC runs year-round, with numbered pay-per-view cards roughly monthly and Fight Night events most weekends.
- vs
Colton Loud
Christian NatividadDana White's Contender Series · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
Sep 8, 11:00 PM UTC
ML +240
- vs
Kwon Won Il
Apollo GomesDana White's Contender Series · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
Sep 8, 11:00 PM UTC
ML -133
- vs
Martin Kozák
Christian EcholsDana White's Contender Series · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
Sep 8, 11:00 PM UTC
ML -510
- vs
Isaac Moreno
Reginaldo JuniorDana White's Contender Series · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
Sep 8, 11:00 PM UTC
ML -128
- vs
Quentin Pasley
Arlind BerishaDana White's Contender Series · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
Sep 8, 11:00 PM UTC
ML +133
Upcoming UFC Fights
Fights scheduled over the next 3 days on the public feed, after today. Lines are shown as soon as the market posts them; fights without a line yet are listed with their start time only.
Nothing further is listed for UFC in the next 3 days on the public schedule feed. UFC runs year-round, with numbered pay-per-view cards roughly monthly and Fight Night events most weekends.
The UFC fights page shows the widest schedule window available, and the sports index lists which boards have events today.
UFC Analytics FAQ
How does Sportslyx analyze a UFC fight?
The breakdown compares both fighters on striking, grappling, finish rate, reach and recent activity, reads the market line and produces a market-derived win probability, an AI fight summary and a data-quality tier. Results are graded from the official result.
Does Sportslyx predict the method of victory?
The AI breakdown discusses likely paths to victory, but method of victory is not a market Sportslyx prices; the graded read is the fight winner on the moneyline.
What happens to a prediction if a fight is cancelled?
Cancelled or no-contest bouts are voided and do not count in the published record.
How often are UFC cards updated?
Cards are refreshed as they are announced and again on fight day as the market settles.
Is this betting advice?
Sportslyx produces statistical estimates and analytical breakdowns for information and entertainment. Nothing on this page is betting advice, and no outcome is certain.
UFC Breakdowns for Every Fight — 7 Days on Us
Full Pro access: the AI breakdown and market-derived probability for every UFC fight on the board, the daily reads, Combo Builder, Studio and the pick tracker. A card is required, nothing is charged today, and you can cancel before the trial ends.
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Sportslyx produces statistical estimates and analytical breakdowns for information and entertainment. Nothing on this page is betting advice, and no outcome is certain. 18+ only. Please play responsibly — see our Responsible Play page.