Ultimate Fighting Championship
UFC Predictions Powered by Analytics
UFC predictions on Sportslyx compare striking and grappling profiles, finish rates, reach and recent activity, then publish a win probability and an AI breakdown for every bout on the card.
2026-09-08 · UTC
Today's UFC Predictions
UFC fights on today's board, ordered by start time, with the public lines the feed has published. Where both moneyline prices exist, the market-derived win probability of the favourite is shown — the same number a subscriber sees on the card. The written AI breakdown for each fight lives inside the product.
- vs
Colton Loud
Christian NatividadDana White's Contender Series · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
Sep 8, 11:00 PM UTC
ML +240
- vs
Kwon Won Il
Apollo GomesDana White's Contender Series · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
Sep 8, 11:00 PM UTC
ML -133
- vs
Martin Kozák
Christian EcholsDana White's Contender Series · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
Sep 8, 11:00 PM UTC
ML -510
- vs
Isaac Moreno
Reginaldo JuniorDana White's Contender Series · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
Sep 8, 11:00 PM UTC
ML -128
- vs
Quentin Pasley
Arlind BerishaDana White's Contender Series · Meta APEX, Las Vegas
Sep 8, 11:00 PM UTC
ML +133
Market-derived win probability
- Colton Loud vs Christian NatividadCN 72% · -290
- Kwon Won Il vs Apollo GomesKWI 55% · -133
- Martin Kozák vs Christian EcholsMK 80% · -510
- Isaac Moreno vs Reginaldo JuniorIM 54% · -128
- Quentin Pasley vs Arlind BerishaAB 59% · -155
Fair probability of the moneyline favourite once the bookmaker margin is removed from both prices. It is the market’s estimate, not a Sportslyx selection, and it moves when the line moves.
Upcoming UFC Fights
The next three days of UFC fights beyond today, in the order they start. Lines appear as the market opens; a fight listed without a line simply has not been priced yet, and its probability will be derived once both prices exist.
Nothing is scheduled in the next three days beyond what is already on today's board. UFC runs year-round, with numbered pay-per-view cards roughly monthly and Fight Night events most weekends. Schedules are pulled from the public feed several times a day, so the list fills in as soon as the next fights are announced.
Meanwhile the UFC fights index lists recent results, and the predictions hub shows which sports are on the board today.
How UFC Predictions Are Made
Every UFC estimate on this site is anchored to the market and written from a data package assembled for that fight. What follows is the UFC-specific version of the pipeline described on the methodology page.
A fight is an individual event with no home side, so the package is a two-fighter comparison: records and finish rates, striking and grappling profiles, reach and stance, layoff and recent activity. The moneyline pair is de-vigged exactly as in a team sport, and the favourite’s fair probability is the number on the card.
Two markets are priced: the fight moneyline and the round total. The breakdown discusses likely paths to victory, but method of victory is not a market Sportslyx prices, and the graded read is the winner on the moneyline. A cancelled bout, a no-contest or a fighter withdrawn from the card is void and removed from the month; a split or majority decision counts as an ordinary result.
The probability on every card is market-derived: it comes from the published prices, not from the language model's self-reported confidence. What the breakdown adds is context — why the number sits where it does, what could move it and where the package is thin — together with a data-quality tier (rich, partial or weak) that tells the model how much to claim. Feeds are public and can be delayed or incomplete; when a line is missing, the card says so instead of inventing a figure.
Markets covered for UFC: fight moneyline and round total (over/under). The full grading rules, including how voids and pushes are handled, are on the methodology page.
Inputs read before the breakdown is written
- Fighter records and finish rates
- Striking and grappling profiles
- Reach and stance
- Layoff and activity
- Market odds and movement
Sourced from the public scoreboard feed and its enrichment feeds; see data sources for refresh timing.
UFC Prediction Accuracy
Settled UFC reads by calendar month (UTC), newest first, from the same records a subscriber sees inside the product. Hit rate excludes pushes; ROI assumes a flat stake on every read.
| Month | Settled | W-L-P | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 15 | 9-6-0 | 60% | -12.4% |
| August 2026 | 42 | 25-17-0 | 60% | -19.3% |
| July 2026 | 0 | 0-0-0 | — | — |
| June 2026 | 0 | 0-0-0 | — | — |
| May 2026 | 0 | 0-0-0 | — | — |
| April 2026 | 0 | 0-0-0 | — | — |
| Total | 57 | 34-23-0 | 60% | -17.5% |
Over the period shown: 57 settled reads, 34-23-0 W-L-P, a hit rate of 60% and an ROI of -17.5% at a flat stake.
A card produces a dozen reads at most and cancellations are common, so the UFC record is thin and lumpy. Voids are removed rather than counted as losses. Past results do not predict future results; a good month is partly variance, and the company board reads the market favourite by design, so a high hit rate at short prices is the expected shape rather than proof of an edge. Nothing here is advice — it is a record, published so you can judge the method for yourself.
Markets We Cover for UFC
The UFC package reads 2 markets from the public feeds. Each is described below with how it is used in the breakdown and, where applicable, how it is graded.
Fight moneyline
A straight price on which fighter wins. The pair is de-vigged into the favourite’s fair probability shown on the card, and the winner is the read that is graded; everything else in the breakdown is context.
Round total (over/under)
Over/under on how long the fight lasts, priced from the public feed. Read alongside finish rates and pace to describe the expected shape of the bout; the graded read remains the winner on the moneyline. Method of victory comes up in the breakdown prose but is not a market Sportslyx prices.
UFC Prediction FAQ
How does Sportslyx analyze a UFC fight?
The breakdown compares both fighters on striking, grappling, finish rate, reach and recent activity, reads the market line and produces a market-derived win probability, an AI fight summary and a data-quality tier. Results are graded from the official result.
Does Sportslyx predict the method of victory?
The AI breakdown discusses likely paths to victory, but method of victory is not a market Sportslyx prices; the graded read is the fight winner on the moneyline.
What happens to a prediction if a fight is cancelled?
Cancelled or no-contest bouts are voided and do not count in the published record.
How often are UFC cards updated?
Cards are refreshed as they are announced and again on fight day as the market settles.
Is this betting advice?
Sportslyx produces statistical estimates and analytical breakdowns for information and entertainment. Nothing on this page is betting advice, and no outcome is certain.
Open the AI breakdown for every UFC fight
The public page shows the UFC board, the lines and the graded record. A 7-day Pro trial adds the written breakdown for each fight, the daily company reads, Combo Builder, Studio models and personal pick tracking — card on file, nothing charged today, cancel before the trial ends.
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Sportslyx produces statistical estimates and analytical breakdowns for information and entertainment. Nothing on this page is betting advice, and no outcome is certain. 18+ only. Please play responsibly — see our Responsible Play page.