VALORANT · tactical shooter

Valorant Analytics & Match Predictions

Every VALORANT series on one board — VCT and tier-2: AI breakdowns, market-implied win chances where a book prices the match, map scores and a graded record.

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Format note. VCT matches are best-of-three; playoff finals are best-of-five. Times on this page are UTC.

Valorant Match Analysis

A VALORANT series is assembled from the bo3.gg feed: both rosters with crests, the event and stage — VCT international leagues, Masters and Champions, or the tier-two circuit beneath them — the best-of format and the live map score. Where the free bookmaker feed prices the match, the breakdown starts from the series moneyline, map handicap and total maps and reads recent series form for both teams. It does not read agent picks; where bo3.gg carries them, the members-only breakdown reads per-map win rates and player ratings for the listed rosters, and none of that team or player data is shown on this public page. The write-up argues from the format, the form the feed shows and the stage of the event, and says where the package is thin. A percentage appears on this page only where a book line exists, and it is market-implied, not a Sportslyx selection.

What the breakdown reads

Schedule, live scores and results
Rosters and team crests
Tournament and best-of format
Recent series form
Bookmaker lines where covered

Not in the package

No draft or agent data and no round-by-round data reach the Valorant breakdown; per-map win rates and player ratings enter it only where bo3.gg carries them, and none of that team or player data is shown on this public page. Where the free bookmaker feed does not price a series, the product uses a model estimate marked est.; that estimate stays inside the workspace, and this page shows a percentage only where a real line exists.

Valorant Predictions

The percentage on every Valorant series page is market-implied: the series moneyline pair from the free bookmaker feed with the bookmaker’s margin removed, so the two sides sum to 100%. It is the market’s number, not a Sportslyx selection, and it exists only where a book prices the series.

VCT matches are best-of-three; playoff finals are best-of-five. The format is read before the line because it sets the grading rule. A series read that loses by exactly one map — 1–2 in a best-of-three, 2–3 in a best-of-five — is graded as a push, not a loss. The rule is stated on every esports page because it changes how the published hit rate should be read. A best-of-one has no push — a single map decides the read.

What the AI adds is the explanation, not the number. The breakdown reads the same package the analysis section describes — format, the line where a book posts one, rosters, tournament context and recent series form — and writes out why the market sits where it does and what could move it. Board reads are then selected by expected value against the line with a price floor, so a heavy favourite at a very short price is not taken merely because it is likely to win; the model’s series edge is calibrated down before that comparison. Every read is graded from the final map score, and nothing is edited after the fact.

A probability is a statistical estimate. A 65% favourite is expected to lose roughly one series in three; a month in which it loses more than that is not evidence the number was wrong, and a month in which it loses fewer is not evidence it was right. The full Valorant board — every series on the slate with its line and status — lives on the Valorant predictions page.

Valorant Formats & Map Pool

VCT matches are best-of-three and playoff finals are best-of-five, so the one-map rule applies to almost every read: a 1–2 loss in a best-of-three or a 2–3 loss in a best-of-five is a push, and it is stated wherever a record is shown. VALORANT is played on a rotating pool of maps chosen through a pick-and-ban before the series, which shapes a series more than a single team statistic would, and the composition of agents each side runs on each map shapes the game inside it. Sportslyx reads per-map win rates from bo3.gg where the feed carries them, so the map pool enters the members-only breakdown as numbers; agent compositions are not tracked as data, and the write-up does not quote numbers it does not have.

What moves the Valorant line

A VALORANT series line moves with roster changes, with the map pool the market expects after the veto and with the stage of the event — an international final is priced differently from a regular-season league match even between the same two teams. The free bookmaker feed prices the international leagues and larger events and often leaves tier-two matches without a line; those carry a model estimate marked est. inside the product and no percentage on this page. Where the book does post a price, the market-implied chance shown here follows that line at the last refresh. Board reads are chosen by expected value against the line with a price floor, and the model’s series edge is calibrated down before the comparison is made.

Markets We Cover for Valorant

The Valorant package reads 3 markets from the free bookmaker feed where it covers the series. Each is described below with how it is used in the breakdown; the moneyline is the market board reads are graded on.

Series moneyline

A straight price on which team wins the series. It is the market the free bookmaker feed prices most often, the one de-vigged into the market-implied chance on every public page, and the one board reads are compared against by expected value.

Map handicap (±1.5)

The favourite gives a map and a half, the underdog receives it. In a best-of-three the favourite must win 2–0 to cover; the underdog covers by taking a single map. The breakdown reads it as the market’s view of how one-sided the series is expected to be.

Total maps (over/under)

Over or under on how many maps the series lasts — 2.5 in a best-of-three, 3.5 or 4.5 in a best-of-five. A short total says the market expects a sweep; a long one, a series that goes the distance. It is context for the read, not a market the board grades.

Bookmaker coverage is partial: right now 0 of the 12 live and upcoming Valorant series in the board window carry a real line. Series the book does not price are priced inside the product by a model estimate marked est., and those prices enter the record, which is why ROI on this site is labelled “partly est. prices”.

Valorant Track Record

Published Valorant board reads settled in each of the last 3 calendar months (UTC), newest first, graded from the final map score. Hit rate is wins divided by wins plus losses with pushes excluded; ROI assumes a flat stake per read.

Valorant board reads by month
Month	Settled	W-L-P	Hit rate	ROI
September 2026	41	19-15-7	56%	-2.7%
August 2026	139	80-28-31	74%	+16.9%
July 2026	46	28-10-8	74%	+14.3%

ROI at a flat stake, partly est. prices; one-map losses are pushes.

A series read that loses by exactly one map — 1–2 in a best-of-three, 2–3 in a best-of-five — is graded as a push, not a loss. The rule is stated on every esports page because it changes how the published hit rate should be read. Part of the prices behind these reads are model estimates rather than bookmaker lines, so the ROI column is labelled accordingly. 3 months of Valorant is a small sample — a single event can be most of a month — so read it as a window into the method, not as a forecast; past results do not predict future results.

Live & Upcoming Valorant Matches

Valorant series in the board window, live first and then by start time (UTC), with both rosters, the tournament, the best-of format, the map score once play begins and the public line where a book prices the series. A series without a line is listed without a percentage.

Recent Valorant results

All Valorant matches with lines and analysis →

Valorant Analytics FAQ

How does Sportslyx analyze a Valorant series?

The breakdown starts from the series format and the market line where a book covers the match, then reads recent form, rosters and the tournament context. The output is a written analysis and, for board reads, a graded result. A series read that loses by exactly one map — 1–2 in a best-of-three, 2–3 in a best-of-five — is graded as a push, not a loss. The rule is stated on every esports page because it changes how the published hit rate should be read.

Where do Valorant lines come from?

A free public bookmaker feed that prices the top divisions — series moneyline, map handicap and total maps. Matches the book does not cover carry a model estimate marked “est.” instead of a real line.

Why is a one-map loss a push in Valorant?

A best-of series lost 1–2 or 2–3 is structurally the esports equivalent of a soccer draw: the read was one map from right. Sportslyx grades it as a push and says so openly, because it lifts the published hit rate relative to a plain win/loss count.

Is there a public track record for Valorant?

Yes. Board reads are graded from the final map score and published by month with hit rate and ROI at a flat stake; where the price was a model estimate, ROI is marked est.

Is this betting advice?

Sportslyx produces statistical estimates and analytical breakdowns for information and entertainment. Nothing on this page is betting advice, and no outcome is certain.

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Sportslyx produces statistical estimates and analytical breakdowns for information and entertainment. Nothing on this page is betting advice, and no outcome is certain. 18+ only. Please play responsibly — see our Responsible Play page.