Noche UFC · Saturday, September 12, 2026
Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki — Fight Analysis
Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki — Noche UFC, on Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 9:00 PM UTC at Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale. Below: the public lines, the market-implied win probability, fighter statistics, recent form, head-to-head history and a preview of the members-only AI breakdown.
Noche UFC
Tommy McMillen
Marwan RahikiScheduled · Sep 12, 9:00 PM UTC
Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale
Times shown in UTC — adjust for your local time zone.
Overview
Match Overview
The facts of the fight as the public feed reports them. Times are UTC; the lines are a snapshot from the last refresh, not a closing price.
- Competition
- Noche UFC
- Date
- Saturday, September 12, 2026
- Start time (UTC)
- 9:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale
- Status
- Scheduled · Sep 12, 9:00 PM UTC
- Moneyline
- TM -155 · MR +133
- Market-implied
- Tommy McMillen 59%
Market-implied: Tommy McMillen 59%. The moneyline pair (TM -155 / MR +133) is de-vigged two-way into a fair probability, and Tommy McMillen comes out as the market favorite at 59% (price -155). This is the market's number — the same anchor the Sportslyx board uses — and it is not a Sportslyx pick. The members-only breakdown is written separately from these inputs and graded on its own.
Statistics
Team Statistics
Fighter numbers for Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki and how they are used in the breakdown.
Fighter statistics — record and finish rate, significant strikes landed and absorbed, takedown rate and defense, reach and stance — are compiled inside the members-only fight breakdown rather than on this public page.
The UFC statistics hub explains what each measure captures and why the moneyline moves with it.
Form
Recent Form
What recent form means for a fighter and where it is weighed.
Recent form for a fighter is the last few results, the method and round of each finish, and the layoff since the previous bout — a different shape from a team's last-five strip, so it is compiled inside the members-only fight breakdown.
The UFC analytics hub explains how activity and layoff are weighed.
History
Head-to-Head
Previous meetings in the feed, most recent first, with competition, score and winner. A short series says little on its own; it matters when it exposes a style matchup the season numbers hide.
Tommy McMillen and Marwan Rahiki have no previous meeting in the feed. Rematches are uncommon in the UFC, and when one happens the earlier result is weighed in the members-only breakdown alongside how both fighters have changed since.
The UFC predictions hub shows the graded UFC record.
Members only
AI Match Analysis
What the Sportslyx breakdown for Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki covers — and why none of it is printed here.
The members-only breakdown is written by a language model from the hydrated data package and the market line at the time it is generated. For UFC it weighs fighter records and finish rates, striking and grappling profiles, reach and stance, layoff and activity and market odds and movement and states which side the numbers favor; the read is later graded against the result. AI breakdowns are pre-generated for the upcoming slate and cached; the win probability on the card is derived from the current market line. The breakdown text is not rewritten when the line moves. A data-quality tier — rich, partial or weak — is passed to the model so thin data is flagged rather than hidden, and the percentage shown anywhere on Sportslyx is a market-derived win probability, not a model score.
Nothing from that breakdown appears on this public page: not the side, not the data-quality tier, not the text. What you can check without an account is how past reads performed — the Pick Tracker publishes hit rate and ROI at a flat stake by month and by sport, and the AI sports analysis page explains how the model is prompted and where it fails.
What the UFC breakdown weighs
- Fighter records and finish rates
- Striking and grappling profiles
- Reach and stance
- Layoff and activity
- Market odds and movement
Players
Key Player Statistics
Statistical leaders and the availability report for both sides, from the fight data package. Late scratches are among the main reasons a line moves before the start.
Fighter-level numbers — strikes per minute, striking accuracy, takedowns per 15 minutes and submission attempts — are compiled inside the members-only breakdown for this bout rather than on the public page.
The UFC statistics hub defines each measure.
Grading
Prediction Tracking
How a read on Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki is settled and where the result is published.
The read is graded on the official winner of the bout. A cancelled fight, a no-contest or a bout pulled from the card is void and leaves the record. The round total (over/under) is priced alongside the moneyline; method of victory is not a market Sportslyx prices and appears only in the breakdown prose.
Tracked picks close 15 minutes after the start, so a read cannot be added once the fight is under way. Postponed fights are removed from the record rather than counted. Every settled read lands in a calendar-month (UTC) record with hit rate — wins divided by wins plus losses, pushes excluded — and ROI at a flat stake per read. One period, one set of rules, across the whole product.
The same settlement rules apply to your own tracked picks inside the workspace: add Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki to a watchlist, log a read, and it is graded automatically from the official result, with your net result shown in money at your own stake. The public record is on the Pick Tracker, the per-sport history on UFC predictions, and the full rule set on the Methodology page.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki start?
Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki is scheduled on Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 9:00 PM UTC at Desert Diamond Arena, Glendale. Times on Sportslyx are shown in UTC — adjust for your local time zone. Start times can shift, so the board is refreshed from the schedule feed several times a day.
What is the moneyline for Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki?
As of the last refresh the public moneyline is Tommy McMillen -155 and Marwan Rahiki +133. A negative price is the favorite, a positive price the underdog; the line can move up to the walkout as the card firms up.
Who is the market favorite in Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki?
Tommy McMillen, at 59% market-implied (price -155). The figure is produced by de-vigging the moneyline pair into a fair two-way probability. It is the market's estimate, not a Sportslyx pick — the members-only breakdown may agree or disagree with it, and it is graded either way.
How is a prediction on Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki graded?
The read is graded on the official winner of the bout. A cancelled fight, a no-contest or a bout pulled from the card is void and leaves the record. The round total (over/under) is priced alongside the moneyline; method of victory is not a market Sportslyx prices and appears only in the breakdown prose. Tracked picks close 15 minutes after the start, and every settled read lands in a calendar-month (UTC) record with hit rate and ROI at a flat stake, published on the Pick Tracker.
Open the Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki breakdown
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Sportslyx produces statistical estimates and analytical breakdowns for information and entertainment. Nothing on this page is betting advice, and no outcome is certain. 18+ only. Please play responsibly — see our Responsible Play page.